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Within the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.