Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
