From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”