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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.